Mathematical models to define new malaria immunotherapies and interventions to meet public health needs

Despite recent progress in fighting malaria, there remains a need for new antimalarial interventions to protect children and other vulnerable populations who experience the highest burden of malaria.

Developing new interventions, such as vaccines, monoclonal antibodies and new drugs is time-consuming and costly, and it is often unclear what the public health impact will be for a new intervention until very late in the development process. However, selecting between promising candidate interventions must happen early in development.

We use mathematical models of disease, of interventions, and of health systems to predict what properties an intervention should have, such as efficacy, in order to achieve a particular public health impact. For example, with models we explore improving possible health outcomes for vulnerable populations, then work backward to define the type of intervention that will fill this need.

Together with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, we are working to define new medicinal interventions by bringing in many stakeholders including collaborators from academia, product development partners, and representatives from malaria-endemic countries. Our focus is on next-generation malaria vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, and new chemoprevention antimalarials.

The product profiles that we define can be used early in the development process to select between new interventions, ensuring that the chosen interventions meet public health needs, and ensuring impact for children and vulnerable populations.