The relative effect of climate variability on malaria incidence after scale-up of interventions in western Kenya: a time-series analysis of monthly... (Publications)
effect of climate variability on malaria incidence after scale-up of interventions in western Kenya. Methods Bayesian negative binomial models were fitted to monthly malaria incidence data, extracted from [...] variable selection was used to determine the elapsing time between climate suitability and malaria incidence. Results Malaria incidence increased by 50% from 2008 to 2010, then declined by 73% until 2015. There [...] associated with a decline in malaria incidence in children aged 6–59...
Modelling to inform next-generation medical interventions for malaria prevention and treatment (Publications)
Global progress against malaria has stagnated and novel medical interventions to prevent malaria are needed to fill gaps in existing tools and improve protection against infection and disease. Candidate [...] opportunity to link product characteristics with expected public health outcomes. Population models of malaria transmission can provide a better understanding of which, and at what magnitude, key intervention [...] deployment strategies. We describe how modelling evidence can guide and...
What Africa can do to accelerate and sustain progress against malaria (Publications)
weaknesses in the fight against malaria and instead reinforces a narrow, commodity-driven vision of disease control. This paper therefore describes the core challenges hindering malaria programs in Africa and [...] After a longstanding global presence, malaria is now largely non-existent or suppressed in most parts of the world. Today, cases and deaths are primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. According to [...] opportunities to rethink current strategies for sustainable control and...
Model-informed target product profiles of long-acting-injectables for use as seasonal malaria prevention (Publications)
Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) has proven highly efficacious in reducing malaria incidence. However, the continued success of SMC is threatened by the spread of resistance against one of its main [...] and incomplete adherence to the regimens. Via a simulation study with an individual-based model of malaria dynamics, we provide quantitative evidence to assess long-acting injectables (LAIs) as potential
Health worker compliance with severe malaria treatment guidelines in the context of implementing pre-referral rectal artesunate in the Democratic... (Publications)
concerns about an effective continuum of care for children with severe malaria seem justified. Stricter compliance with the WHO severe malaria treatment guidelines is critical to effectively manage this disease [...] BACKGROUND: For a full treatment course of severe malaria, community-administered pre-referral rectal artesunate (RAS) should be completed by post-referral treatment consisting of an injectable antimalarial [...] admission in included referral health facilities (RHFs) in children...
Malaria, climate variability, and interventions: modelling transmission dynamics (Publications)
of the relative impact of climate change on malaria dynamics is a complex problem. Climate is a well-known factor that plays a crucial role in driving malaria outbreaks in epidemic transmission areas. However [...] influence in endemic environments with intensive malaria control interventions is not fully understood, mainly due to the scarcity of high-quality, long-term malaria data. The demographic surveillance systems [...] effects of weather variability on the burden of malaria. Here, using a...
Modelling the impact of interventions on imported, introduced and indigenous malaria infections in Zanzibar, Tanzania (Publications)
Malaria cases can be classified as imported, introduced or indigenous cases. The World Health Organization's definition of malaria elimination requires an area to demonstrate that no new indigenous cases [...] cases have occurred in the last three years. Here, we present a stochastic metapopulation model of malaria transmission that distinguishes between imported, introduced and indigenous cases, and can be used [...] interventions in a setting with low transmission and ongoing case importation....
