Group | Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics

The Disease Modelling and Intervention Dynamics research group develops new mathematical models and methodology applied to diseases with highly complex dynamics. We work to understand how pathogen, host and intervention dynamics combine to prevent disease progression and transmission and to address contemporary issues in infectious diseases and global health. We work in the areas of malaria and respiratory viruses, including supporting understanding and interventions against SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Using Models to Understand Diseases and How to Intervene

We are an interdisciplinary group of researchers who develop and use models to understand parasitic and viral diseases and inform public health decision-making. We design data-, biology- and epidemiologically-informed mathematical models covering all aspects of disease and treatment dynamics - within-host immune and infection, population transmission, parasite and vector life-cycles, health systems access and interventions as well as detailed interactions with pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions.

We use data analysis, and modelling and simulation to examine complex interactions between infectious diseases, individuals and populations, medical interventions and health systems. We apply novel statistical and machine-learning approaches to calibrate and deploy complex disease models.

We use these models to understand disease progression, pathogenesis and disease transmission, and to estimate impacts of existing and novel health interventions at the individuals or population level in the context of real-world health systems. We evaluate potential intervention and resource allocation strategies to achieve effective and equitable impact on infectious diseases, including emerging diseases. We work closely with other research institutions in Switzerland and abroad, as well as with global health donors and public health policy stakeholders.

Generate Evidence for Decision-Making and Development of New Interventions

Our main aim is to generate evidence for decision-making along the whole pathway of new intervention development against infectious diseases - from preclinical to clinical testing, and at implementation in real populations and health systems, including for pandemic responses and preparedness. Our model-based evidence supports drug, monoclonal antibodies, vaccine and other intervention development by selecting candidate interventions with optimal properties. Overall, we aim to increase quantitative evidence to support the development and use of impactful interventions, to eliminate, prevent and treat infectious diseases.

Through our close relationships with global health stakeholders, our model-based evidence supports the selection of optimal deployment strategies to achieve disease burden reduction targets, increase prevention or support disease elimination approaches.